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Let’s go right back to the first example in this chapter:
Let’s say you have a single six-sided die. If you role it, what is the
probability you will roll a 1?
If you remember, the answer was 1/6.
Now let’s put some money on this. You’re in Vegas, and you’re
going to win $500 if the die lands on 1. When it does, you just won $500! Let’s call that a success. You had a 1/6 chance to achieve that success.
But you decide to let it ride! You’re convinced it can happen again.
You go double or nothing, betting again on 1. This time, the die comes up on
something else! You’ve failed. And since 5 out of the
6 outcomes would have caused that failure, the probability to fail is 5/6.
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